Thursday, October 23, 2008

No more boom, plenty more bust...

This recession is going to cause more pain than most people realise - more quickly. Few people in the insulated world of public employment have any idea what it's like trying to run a business with the overheads of Broon's Boom and Bust Proof-socialist paradise. Talk of fiddling on the margins of corporation tax is futile.

Deferring tax is likewise futile - all that means is that 6 months down the line HM C&R will wind you up double quick, especially if you have been daft enough to pledge personal assets to cover loans you take out to keep an ailing business alive in the meantime. (Although perhaps Broon's geniuses will have worked out how to nationalise 8-man building firms and the self employed by then.)

Any business trapped in a long lease with the traditionally punitive terms signed in the fat days of 2006 will find their landlords really keen to be understanding; any business with employees being paid more than they are worth to the business will have to pay now to possibly save later; so for many businesses, the cheapest option now will simply be to go bust. Expect a boom in the insolvency industry.

The domino effect of this failure is already starting to be felt. All discretionary spending will cease by the end of the year - although the UK population is probably conditioned to continue to spend too much on tat as yuletide approaches, the chances are that there will be massive trouble in retail by March.

Make no mistake folks, there is no plan B here - the infamous "No More Boom and Bust" statement tells you everything you need to know about Broon's strategic planning and readiness. We are so deep in the shitter this time round that there will have to be some really creative thinking and massive effort to haul us out. Does it really look like Broon and B team can deliver it? Things may get so dire, so quickly, that someone will start talking about a government of "national unity" before long so that the inevitable draconian measures can be rammed through.

Thanks Gordon, you're a star.

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